Answer: Nationals - not very well; World Team selection - slightly better.
There was only one clear correlation: The winner of the U.S. WAG National Championships in the last four (actually, 6!) pre-Olympic years has made the Olympic team.
How to read these results:
Red = Olympian the following year
Orange = Olympic alternate the following year
WT = World Championships Team Member
WA = World Championships Team Alternate
2011 Results
First, let's take a look at the most recent pre-Olympic year's results: 2011. The 2012 WAG U.S. Olympic team consisted of Jordyn Wieber, McKayla Maroney, Alexandra Raisman, Gabrielle Douglas, and Kyla Ross with Anna Li, Sarah Finnegan, and Elizabeth Price as alternates. Here are the results from Visa Championships the year before the Olympics:
| 2011 Visa Championships - Seniors | 2011 Visa Championships - Juniors | |||||
| Rank | Name | Score | Rank | Name | Score | |
| 1 | Jordyn Wieber WT | 121.30 | 1 | Katelyn Ohashi | 120.95 | |
| 2 | McKayla Maroney WT | 115.15 | 2 | Kyla Ross | 117.65 | |
| 3 | Alexandra Raisman WT | 114.60 | 3 | Sarah Finnegan | 115.30 | |
| 4 | Mackenzie Caquatto | 112.50 | 4 | Lexie Priessman | 115.10 | |
| 5 | Sabrina Vega WT | 112.05 | 5 | Amelia Hundley | 112.05 | |
| 6 | Bridgette Caquatto | 111.50 | 6 | Brenna Dowell | 111.60 | |
| 7 | Gabrielle Douglas WT | 110.35 | 7 | Kennedy Baker | 110.75 | |
| 8 | Chellsie Memmel | 109.85 | 8 | Kiana Winston | 110.25 | |
| 9 | Sophia Lee | 109.20 | 9 | Bailie Key | 109.55 | |
| 10 | Grace McLaughlin | 108.60 | 10 | Mykayla Skinner | 109.40 | |
| Specialist | Anna Li WA | 11 | Elizabeth Price | 109.50 | ||
| Specialist | Alicia Sacramone WT | |||||
Looking at those results, apart from the top 3 on the senior side, there really isn't a whole lot of overlap between these results and the Olympic team selection. As seen here, we could have some surprises from those who are juniors this year (2015) but will be seniors next year (2016).
The 2011 World Team matched up better. The only Olympian missing is Kyla Ross who was a junior at the time and therefore not age eligible to compete.
It should also be noted that Alicia Sacramone tore her achilles right before the 2011 World Championships and therefore did not compete.
| 2007 Visa Championships - Seniors | 2007 Visa Championships - Juniors | |||||
| Rank | Name | Score | Rank | Name | Score | |
| 1 | Shawn Johnson WT | 123.65 | 1 | Rebecca Bross | 119.40 | |
| 2 | Shayla Worley WT | 120.20 | 2 | Samantha Shapiro | 117.50 | |
| 3 | Nastia Liukin WT | 118.50 | 3 | Jordyn Wieber | 116.2 | |
| 4 | Ivana Hong WT | 118.45 | 4 | Chelsea Davis | 113.95 | |
| 5 | Bridget Sloan WT | 118.00 | 5 | Rheagan Courville | 113.75 | |
| 6 | Geralen Stack-Eaton | 116.50 | 6 | Mattie Larson | 113.7 | |
| 7 | Samantha Peszek WT | 116.30 | 7 | Olivia Courtney | 113.55 | |
| 8 | Jana Bieger | 115.60 | 8 | Ashley Stott | 112.9 | |
| 9 | Darlene Hill | 114.65 | 9 | Corrie Lothrop | 112.7 | |
| 10 | Natasha Kelley | 113.65 | 10 | Cassandra Whitcomb | 112.6 | |
| Specialist | Alicia Sacramone WT | |||||
2008 Olympian Chellsie Memmel missed the 2007 season due to a shoulder injury but recovered in time to make the Olympic team.
2003 Results
| 2003 US Nationals - Seniors | 2003 US Nationals - Juniors | |||
| Rank | Name | Rank | Name | |
| 1 | Courtney Kupets WT | 1 | Nastia Liukin | |
| 2 | Tasha Schwikert WT | 2 | Courtney McCool | |
| 3 | Hollie Vise WT | 3 | Ashley Priess | |
| 4 | Ashley Postell WA | 4 | Shayla Worley | |
| 5 | Annia Hatch WA | 5 | Caitlin Sullivan | |
| 6 | Terin Humphrey WT | 6 | Bianca Flohr | |
| 7 | Katie Heenan | |||
| 8 | Tia Orlando | |||
| 9 | Marcia Newby | |||
| 10 | Chellsie Memmel WT | |||
| 11 | Kristina Comforte | |||
| 12 | Liz Tricase | |||
| 13 | Allyse Ishino | |||
Carly Patterson WT was also on the 2003 World Team but had to miss Nationals that year due to a broken elbow. Notably absent from Nationals and Worlds in 2003 was 2004 Olympian Mohini Bhardwaj who had just begun training again in 2003 after a year off due to injury.
1999 Results
| 1999 John Hancock U.S. Gymnastics Championships - Seniors | ||
| Rank | Name | |
| 1 | Kristen Maloney WT | |
| 2 | Vanessa Atler WT | |
| 3 | Jennie Thompson WT | |
| 4 | Alyssa Beckerman | |
| 5 | Jamie Dantzscher WT | |
| 6 | Elise Ray WT | |
| 7 | Morgan White* WT | |
| 8 | Robin Phelps | |
| 9 | Tasha Schwikert** | |
| 10 | Stephanie Carter | |
*Morgan White was initially selected for the Olympic team but had to withdraw due to injury
**Tasha Schwikert was originally an alternate and joined the team after Morgan White's injury
Notably absent from the 1999 U.S. Nationals and World Teams are 2000 Olympians Amy Chow and Dominique Dawes who returned later. Jeanette Antolin WT missed the 1999 Nationals, but returned for the World Team Trials where she placed 2nd and made the team.
Share your thoughts (or any corrections if I made a mistake) in the comments below or via Twitter to @Gymtertainment :)
Results and Team Selections were found using these USAGym links:
World Championships Rosters: https://usagym.org/pages/pressbox/history/worlds_rosters_women.html
National Championships Results: https://usagym.org/pages/pressbox/history/nationalchamps_results.html
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